Betting Lines
| Spread | UNH -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.0 Under |
| Money | ME +175 UNH -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ME win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNH +4 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | ME -0.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ME -1.0 (-5.0) | 129.1 (-9.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNH -0.1 (-3.9) | 129.0 (-9.0) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNH -0.6 (-3.4) | 129.8 (-9.8) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ME -0.2 (-4.2) | 128.7 (-8.7) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ME 61 – 58 UNH |
| Jan 19, 2026 | UNH 65 – 48 ME |
| Feb 28, 2025 | ME 73 – 66 UNH |
| Jan 30, 2025 | ME 71 – 46 UNH |
| Feb 11, 2024 | UNH 60 – 57 ME |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ME | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-7 | 10-9 |
| Conference | 2-6 | 9-6 |
| Home | 1-1 | 5-6 |
| Away | 1-6 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 53.1 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#259) | -2.9 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#244) | -0.65 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#239) | -0.77 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.380 (#301) | 0.414 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ME | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 43.6% |
| TOV% | 25.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 84.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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