Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
| Money | USF -105 UCF -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +7 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -1.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -0.2 (+7.2) | 134.9 (-5.9) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -1.4 (+5.6) | 133.2 (-4.2) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -0.6 (+6.4) | 134.7 (-5.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -0.6 (+7.6) | 134.4 (-5.4) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 20, 2024 | USF 83 – 77 UCF |
| Feb 23, 2023 | USF 82 – 75 UCF |
| Jan 21, 2023 | USF 85 – 72 UCF |
| Mar 11, 2022 | UCF 60 – 58 USF |
| Feb 4, 2022 | UCF 68 – 49 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-13 | 11-12 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 4-6 | 6-3 |
| Away | 3-4 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#142) | 6.4 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#108) | 2.46 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#101) | 4.38 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#129) | 0.653 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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