Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | UCSB -2000 CSUF +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +4 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -11.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -10.2 (-6.2) | 143.0 (-17.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -12.4 (-8.4) | 140.7 (-14.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -12.6 (-8.6) | 141.3 (-15.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | UCSB 83 – 69 CSUF |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CSUF 95 – 84 UCSB |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UCSB 86 – 56 CSUF |
| Jan 26, 2025 | UCSB 83 – 75 CSUF |
| Mar 3, 2024 | CSUF 79 – 70 UCSB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-5 | 6-10 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 5-7 |
| Home | 11-0 | 5-4 |
| Away | 8-4 | 1-5 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 75.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 79.1 |
| Massey | 2.4 (#127) | -6.1 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#165) | -1.26 (#255) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#171) | -2.16 (#275) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#203) | 0.300 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 0.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 16.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 10.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 10.9% |
Game Analysis
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