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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
29–8 on winners
spread MAE 9.4
37 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Indiana
@
Michigan
|
+15.1 | 159.3 | 88% | 72–86 | ✓ |
UCF
@
Iowa State
|
+11.6 | 149.7 | 85% | 57–87 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Florida
|
+10.9 | 152.6 | 85% | 61–79 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Clemson
|
+6.1 | 136.5 | 75% | 80–76 | ✗ |
Saint Louis
@
Duquesne
|
-10.6 | 161.4 | 18% | 81–77 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Kent State
|
-3.0 | 164.4 | 43% | 107–101 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+10.8 | 143.6 | 84% | 70–84 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
St. John's
|
+11.6 | 139.3 | 87% | 60–65 | ✓ |
Florida State
@
Miami
|
+11.0 | 162.0 | 87% | 65–63 | ✗ |
Northern Illinois
@
Ohio
|
+9.1 | 145.6 | 84% | 77–80 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Western Michigan
|
-4.3 | 147.5 | 32% | 72–54 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Central Michigan
|
+0.5 | 136.9 | 48% | 68–67 | ✗ |
Oklahoma
@
South Carolina
|
+1.1 | 148.5 | 46% | 76–85 | ✓ |
DePaul
@
Butler
|
+9.4 | 148.0 | 82% | 80–87 | ✓ |
Evansville
@
UIC
|
+8.9 | 133.2 | 83% | 49–76 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
TCU
|
+6.4 | 158.1 | 76% | 65–68 | ✓ |
Rutgers
@
Iowa
|
+15.3 | 138.7 | 90% | 62–68 | ✓ |
Boise State
@
Wyoming
|
+2.1 | 141.4 | 62% | 81–65 | ✗ |
UT Martin
@
Southeast Missouri State
|
+0.4 | 134.2 | 51% | 50–66 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Oregon
|
-7.5 | 135.2 | 21% | 68–52 | ✓ |
Texas Tech
@
Baylor
|
+0.6 | 150.8 | 37% | 92–73 | ✗ |
Georgia
@
Missouri
|
-2.5 | 161.0 | 43% | 74–72 | ✓ |
Utah
@
Kansas State
|
+7.5 | 159.8 | 76% | 78–81 | ✓ |
SMU
@
Wake Forest
|
-0.2 | 152.9 | 55% | 91–79 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
Colorado State
|
+20.0 | 132.1 | 90% | 52–81 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Ole Miss
|
-1.8 | 151.2 | 36% | 78–66 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Arkansas
|
+2.4 | 170.6 | 61% | 68–93 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
UCLA
|
-1.9 | 138.6 | 33% | 67–69 | ✗ |
San José State
@
Nevada
|
+13.5 | 136.7 | 88% | 54–87 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
Utah State
|
+16.1 | 156.7 | 89% | 86–76 | ✗ |
Kansas
@
Colorado
|
-4.7 | 149.5 | 29% | 75–69 | ✓ |
Lafayette
@
Boston University
|
+4.2 | 142.5 | 60% | 73–77 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
South Carolina Upstate
|
-0.5 | 142.9 | 44% | 83–69 | ✓ |
Samford
@
Wofford
|
+5.0 | 148.0 | 74% | 78–88 | ✓ |
UNC Greensboro
@
VMI
|
-2.7 | 146.4 | 39% | 85–78 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
La Salle
|
-7.9 | 136.2 | 23% | 64–67 | ✗ |
Radford
@
Winthrop
|
+10.8 | 160.3 | 85% | 75–76 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.