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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
30–5 on winners
spread MAE 6.8
35 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Texas Tech
@
Baylor
|
+9.7 | 135.2 | 80% | 65–62 | ✗ |
Kentucky
@
Vanderbilt
|
-4.8 | 136.9 | 32% | 78–66 | ✓ |
DePaul
@
Marquette
|
+6.3 | 154.2 | 76% | 76–87 | ✓ |
Pittsburgh
@
Syracuse
|
+9.8 | 141.7 | 80% | 61–77 | ✓ |
Eastern Kentucky
@
North Alabama
|
+0.2 | 147.5 | 47% | 75–76 | ✓ |
North Florida
@
Liberty
|
+16.2 | 139.3 | 89% | 56–71 | ✓ |
Lipscomb
@
Jacksonville State
|
+11.5 | 147.4 | 88% | 83–88 | ✓ |
Stetson
@
Jacksonville
|
+7.5 | 125.5 | 78% | 50–57 | ✓ |
Central Arkansas
@
Bellarmine
|
+10.7 | 143.0 | 86% | 63–85 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
La Salle
|
-5.3 | 142.5 | 26% | 80–76 | ✓ |
George Washington
@
VCU
|
+18.1 | 131.1 | 88% | 57–84 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
Dayton
|
+1.5 | 133.3 | 57% | 63–68 | ✓ |
Massachusetts
@
Davidson
|
+11.2 | 147.6 | 86% | 67–77 | ✓ |
Northeastern
@
James Madison
|
+4.9 | 135.3 | 72% | 66–89 | ✓ |
Delaware
@
Drexel
|
+2.3 | 141.0 | 62% | 81–77 | ✗ |
Ball State
@
Akron
|
+9.0 | 141.3 | 82% | 74–84 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Ohio
|
+10.2 | 152.1 | 83% | 78–85 | ✓ |
Northern Illinois
@
Kent State
|
+12.6 | 129.6 | 84% | 65–63 | ✗ |
Buffalo
@
Western Michigan
|
-12.2 | 152.7 | 14% | 78–64 | ✓ |
Toledo
@
Miami (OH)
|
-2.5 | 151.3 | 27% | 75–72 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
Eastern Michigan
|
+8.9 | 152.0 | 83% | 68–99 | ✓ |
UT Rio Grande Valley
@
Stephen F. Austin
|
+11.0 | 152.3 | 83% | 75–86 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
Kansas
|
+11.7 | 139.3 | 87% | 61–62 | ✓ |
Miami
@
Florida State
|
+5.8 | 145.8 | 76% | 64–65 | ✓ |
Indiana State
@
Northern Iowa
|
+5.5 | 148.1 | 73% | 74–80 | ✓ |
Oklahoma
@
Texas
|
+8.1 | 123.8 | 79% | 52–66 | ✓ |
Illinois
@
Nebraska
|
-16.1 | 154.1 | 12% | 81–71 | ✓ |
Ole Miss
@
Texas A&M
|
+5.3 | 138.3 | 73% | 51–67 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Alabama
|
+2.4 | 152.5 | 57% | 81–77 | ✗ |
Oklahoma State
@
West Virginia
|
+4.1 | 135.9 | 76% | 60–70 | ✓ |
Valparaiso
@
Loyola Chicago
|
+18.2 | 140.1 | 90% | 74–81 | ✓ |
San José State
@
Fresno State
|
+12.6 | 129.9 | 88% | 59–79 | ✓ |
New Mexico
@
UNLV
|
+6.5 | 153.6 | 78% | 56–85 | ✓ |
Villanova
@
Xavier
|
+2.1 | 137.8 | 53% | 64–60 | ✗ |
Longwood
@
Radford
|
-3.3 | 135.0 | 34% | 83–75 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.