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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
30–5 on winners
spread MAE 6.8
35 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+12.1 | 138.5 | 84% | 65–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.1 | 138.6 | 33% | 78–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 150.0 | 77% | 76–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 144.9 | 83% | 61–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 140.1 | 50% | 75–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.3 | 141.9 | 88% | 56–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.7 | 147.0 | 87% | 83–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.1 | 126.8 | 78% | 50–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.3 | 146.1 | 86% | 63–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.2 | 145.3 | 27% | 80–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.7 | 129.0 | 89% | 57–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 136.8 | 57% | 63–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.5 | 154.3 | 88% | 67–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 138.1 | 72% | 66–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 144.2 | 62% | 81–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.9 | 142.9 | 82% | 74–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.8 | 149.2 | 85% | 78–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.7 | 130.8 | 83% | 65–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-10.8 | 157.6 | 17% | 78–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.8 | 150.9 | 34% | 75–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.7 | 151.9 | 85% | 68–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 149.6 | 83% | 75–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.8 | 140.0 | 79% | 61–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.9 | 148.9 | 70% | 64–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.6 | 149.0 | 76% | 74–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.6 | 128.5 | 69% | 52–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-15.2 | 152.9 | 14% | 81–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.4 | 138.8 | 78% | 51–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 153.8 | 52% | 81–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.6 | 134.6 | 72% | 60–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.3 | 143.4 | 90% | 74–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.8 | 131.6 | 86% | 59–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.1 | 150.8 | 72% | 56–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.6 | 137.9 | 61% | 64–60 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.3 | 138.8 | 43% | 83–75 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.