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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–9 on winners spread MAE 9.5 34 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Lehigh @ Boston University +8.5 142.4 81% 58–69 ✓
Oregon State @ Utah +4.8 134.4 67% 75–70 ✗
Florida A&M @ North Carolina Central +0.3 128.6 48% 65–58 ✗
Providence @ St. John's +2.8 154.7 65% 67–81 ✓
NC State @ Notre Dame +2.4 146.4 62% 80–69 ✗
Minnesota @ Penn State +3.2 148.6 66% 65–84 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Sam Houston +15.9 143.2 89% 61–84 ✓
New Mexico @ Colorado State +19.2 133.8 91% 73–87 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Belmont +15.2 143.9 88% 61–78 ✓
Northwestern State @ LSU New Orleans +4.0 154.4 68% 83–92 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Houston Christian +1.7 141.7 57% 67–72 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Central Arkansas +1.5 149.7 56% 71–88 ✓
Creighton @ Villanova +3.7 146.4 67% 60–72 ✓
Mississippi State @ Texas A&M -3.5 128.3 41% 63–57 ✓
Boston College @ Florida State +14.1 157.3 89% 64–93 ✓
San Diego State @ UNLV -10.9 133.9 16% 71–62 ✓
UCLA @ Oregon +3.1 138.5 66% 74–82 ✓
Maryland @ Northwestern -1.5 134.7 44% 55–60 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Stephen F. Austin -1.8 146.9 44% 63–61 ✓
Idaho State @ Eastern Washington +13.2 143.7 87% 68–63 ✗
Stanford @ USC +8.3 142.6 79% 42–79 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State +7.6 137.6 78% 54–61 ✓
Duquesne @ Richmond +5.2 141.0 71% 67–62 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ Massachusetts +4.1 153.7 66% 66–100 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Liberty +15.5 134.9 88% 59–69 ✓
North Alabama @ North Florida +0.7 140.6 53% 68–60 ✗
Rhode Island @ Dayton +0.6 141.6 54% 72–84 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Quinnipiac +0.1 130.7 50% 60–65 ✓
Monmouth @ Rider -4.1 157.5 31% 77–74 ✓
George Washington @ George Mason +7.8 139.4 78% 59–73 ✓
Campbell @ Radford +1.7 129.8 58% 78–60 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Florida Atlantic +9.3 141.2 81% 50–80 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Bradley +2.7 130.3 59% 73–63 ✗
Fairfield @ Manhattan +2.8 129.9 63% 59–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.