Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | CSU -3300 UNM +1900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +14 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | CSU -23.2 (-9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (+29.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -19.2 (-5.2) | 133.8 (+26.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -16.3 (-2.3) | 136.0 (+24.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -20.3 (-6.3) | 135.4 (+24.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -20.6 (-6.6) | 134.7 (+25.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | CSU 82 – 74 UNM |
| Jan 7, 2026 | UNM 80 – 70 CSU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | UNM 87 – 65 CSU |
| Dec 28, 2024 | UNM 76 – 68 CSU |
| Mar 16, 2024 | UNM 74 – 61 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-8 | 6-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 2-15 |
| Home | 10-1 | 1-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 9.9 (#57) | -10.8 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#26) | -1.28 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#55) | -1.55 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#25) | 0.415 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 25.2% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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