Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | MAN -163 FAIR +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +10 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | MAN -5.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MAN -2.8 (+7.2) | 129.9 (-1.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MAN -3.4 (+6.6) | 129.7 (-1.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MAN -3.0 (+7.0) | 130.0 (-2.0) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MAN -3.2 (+6.8) | 129.9 (-1.9) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | FAIR 71 – 60 MAN |
| Jan 15, 2026 | FAIR 98 – 62 MAN |
| Dec 6, 2025 | MAN 70 – 66 FAIR |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MAN 80 – 67 FAIR |
| Jan 24, 2025 | FAIR 87 – 84 MAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-13 | 10-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 4-6 | 4-8 |
| Away | 3-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.4 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#272) | -9.8 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#254) | -1.24 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#262) | -1.48 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#276) | 0.433 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.0% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.2% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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