Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | FSU -3300 BC +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +29 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -16.0 (+13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -14.1 (+14.9) | 157.3 (-0.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -12.8 (+16.2) | 155.0 (+2.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -15.0 (+14.0) | 157.8 (-0.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -14.7 (+14.3) | 158.3 (-1.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | FSU 80 – 72 BC |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BC 77 – 76 FSU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | FSU 84 – 76 BC |
| Feb 7, 2024 | FSU 63 – 62 BC |
| Feb 18, 2023 | BC 75 – 69 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 4-16 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 2-11 |
| Home | 12-1 | 3-5 |
| Away | 3-4 | 0-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 79.5 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#15) | 1.3 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#18) | -0.38 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#18) | -0.08 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#22) | 0.434 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 54.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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