Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | SJU +100 PROV +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +14 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -1.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.7 (-8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -2.8 (+11.2) | 154.7 (-6.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -2.1 (+11.9) | 152.1 (-4.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -2.0 (+12.0) | 154.8 (-6.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -2.8 (+11.2) | 154.6 (-6.6) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SJU 85 – 72 PROV |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SJU 79 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PROV 77 – 71 SJU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJU 68 – 66 PROV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | SJU 72 – 70 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-11 | 13-13 |
| Conference | 10-9 | 9-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#80) | 8.1 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#62) | 1.52 (#64) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#60) | 2.04 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.533 (#111) | 0.538 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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