Betting Lines
| Spread | NOLA -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | NOLA -200 NWST +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOLA +9 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | NOLA -5.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (+18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -4.0 (+5.0) | 154.4 (+20.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NOLA -3.0 (+6.0) | 154.3 (+20.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -4.4 (+4.6) | 157.1 (+17.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -4.6 (+4.4) | 156.7 (+18.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NOLA 75 – 64 NWST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | NWST 74 – 68 NOLA |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NWST 73 – 66 NOLA |
| Jan 20, 2025 | NWST 73 – 61 NOLA |
| Feb 13, 2024 | NWST 70 – 59 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-15 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 9-7 |
| Home | 6-3 | 6-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 81.0 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#279) | -10.4 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.45 (#330) | -1.88 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.05 (#329) | -2.82 (#323) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#317) | 0.455 (#252) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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