Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -188 CREI +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +12 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -2.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (-17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -3.7 (+8.3) | 146.4 (-14.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -3.6 (+8.4) | 142.2 (-10.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -5.0 (+7.0) | 145.1 (-13.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -3.9 (+8.1) | 146.0 (-14.0) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | VILL 80 – 69 CREI |
| Jan 8, 2026 | CREI 76 – 72 VILL |
| Feb 1, 2025 | CREI 62 – 60 VILL |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CREI 86 – 79 VILL |
| Mar 9, 2024 | CREI 69 – 67 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-7 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-0 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-4 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 15.2 (#12) | 15.0 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.73 (#12) | 2.43 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.29 (#16) | 3.16 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#9) | 0.564 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 24.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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