Betting Lines
| Spread | HCU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | HCU -175 UIW +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HCU +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | HCU -1.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HCU -1.7 (+3.3) | 141.7 (-2.7) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HCU -1.9 (+3.1) | 138.2 (+0.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HCU -0.8 (+4.2) | 140.7 (-1.7) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HCU -1.5 (+3.5) | 143.4 (-4.4) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | HCU 81 – 75 UIW |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UIW 73 – 56 HCU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UIW 74 – 64 HCU |
| Jan 11, 2025 | HCU 81 – 76 UIW |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HCU 86 – 83 UIW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-19 | 8-14 |
| Conference | 4-11 | 5-9 |
| Home | 4-6 | 5-7 |
| Away | 1-12 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.1 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -12.8 (#332) | -11.9 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.77 (#334) | -2.81 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.57 (#335) | -3.67 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#323) | 0.404 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | UIW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 23.2% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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