Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | ND -138 NCSU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +11 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | ND -1.8 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -2.4 (-13.4) | 146.4 (+2.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -1.4 (-12.4) | 144.8 (+4.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -1.8 (-12.8) | 146.6 (+2.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ND -2.0 (-13.0) | 147.6 (+1.4) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | ND 96 – 90 NCSU |
| Jan 9, 2025 | NCSU 66 – 65 ND |
| Jan 4, 2024 | NCSU 54 – 52 ND |
| Jan 25, 2023 | NCSU 85 – 82 ND |
| Feb 5, 2022 | ND 69 – 57 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-15 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-8 |
| Home | 6-5 | 7-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#79) | 8.2 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#113) | 1.10 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#93) | 1.37 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#140) | 0.524 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 20.3% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.5% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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