Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | BRAD +138 SIU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +10 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | BRAD -4.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -2.7 (-12.7) | 130.3 (+5.7) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -2.8 (-12.8) | 127.2 (+8.8) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -2.8 (-12.8) | 130.3 (+5.7) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -2.6 (-12.6) | 130.9 (+5.1) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | BRAD 70 – 60 SIU |
| Dec 21, 2025 | BRAD 73 – 69 SIU |
| Feb 13, 2025 | BRAD 78 – 64 SIU |
| Dec 4, 2024 | BRAD 83 – 60 SIU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | BRAD 86 – 67 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-16 | 12-14 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 64.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#138) | -2.9 (#212) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#189) | -0.50 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#198) | -1.01 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#169) | 0.467 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 29.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 5.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 17.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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