Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | SFA -110 ACU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ACU +2 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | ACU -3.9 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ACU -1.8 (-0.2) | 146.9 (-22.9) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ACU -0.4 (-1.6) | 144.1 (-20.1) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ACU -1.7 (-0.3) | 149.0 (-25.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ACU -1.9 (-0.1) | 148.2 (-24.2) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 15, 2025 | SFA 76 – 66 ACU |
| Dec 31, 2024 | SFA 62 – 57 ACU |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SFA 60 – 57 ACU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | ACU 63 – 62 SFA |
| Dec 2, 2023 | SFA 79 – 74 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-5 | 24-5 |
| Conference | 12-3 | 13-2 |
| Home | 10-1 | 13-0 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 61.6 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#151) | 7.1 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#201) | 0.61 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#212) | 1.00 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#123) | 0.541 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.8% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.0% | 27.4% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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