Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | FAU -400 MTSU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +30 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -9.4 (+20.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -9.3 (+20.7) | 141.2 (-11.2) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -9.1 (+20.9) | 138.5 (-8.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -9.5 (+20.5) | 140.1 (-10.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -9.7 (+20.3) | 142.1 (-12.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2023 | FAU 68 – 65 MTSU |
| Feb 17, 2023 | MTSU 74 – 70 FAU |
| Jan 27, 2023 | FAU 85 – 67 MTSU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | MTSU 87 – 79 FAU |
| Jan 14, 2022 | MTSU 70 – 57 FAU |
Game Analysis
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