Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -175 MINN +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +19 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -3.4 (+15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (-2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -3.2 (+15.8) | 148.6 (+0.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -3.3 (+15.7) | 148.4 (+0.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -3.1 (+15.9) | 153.1 (-4.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -3.2 (+15.8) | 150.1 (-1.1) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | PSU 77 – 75 MINN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | PSU 69 – 60 MINN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | MINN 69 – 61 PSU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MINN 75 – 70 PSU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | MINN 83 – 74 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-14 | 14-15 |
| Conference | 7-12 | 6-14 |
| Home | 7-5 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#51) | 9.2 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#69) | 1.76 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#51) | 2.59 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#119) | 0.521 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | MINN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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