Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | NU +180 MD -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +5 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | MD -2.1 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (-20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -1.5 (+6.5) | 134.7 (-19.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -1.7 (+6.7) | 130.0 (-15.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -1.4 (+6.4) | 135.3 (-20.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MD -0.9 (+5.9) | 134.2 (-19.2) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NU 78 – 74 MD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MD 74 – 61 NU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | NU 76 – 74 MD |
| Feb 29, 2024 | NU 68 – 61 MD |
| Jan 18, 2024 | NU 72 – 69 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-15 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 6-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 7-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 65.9 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#75) | 12.3 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#97) | 2.22 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#70) | 2.96 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#220) | 0.580 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.6 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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