Betting Lines
| Spread | CARK -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | CARK -120 SELA +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +17 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | CARK -3.1 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CARK -1.5 (+15.5) | 149.7 (+9.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CARK -0.9 (+16.1) | 146.2 (+12.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CARK -1.4 (+15.6) | 150.4 (+8.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CARK -1.4 (+15.6) | 150.8 (+8.2) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2021 | SELA 69 – 57 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-19 | 8-18 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 5-10 |
| Home | 4-5 | 3-4 |
| Away | 1-14 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.8 | 77.7 |
| Massey | -12.0 (#326) | -12.6 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.65 (#333) | -2.12 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.75 (#337) | -3.07 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#274) | 0.437 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | SELA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 24.4% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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