We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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29–10 on winners spread MAE 6.9 39 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State +0.7 151.4 54% 79–77 ✗
Alcorn State @ Bethune-Cookman +2.8 132.7 66% 60–69 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Marist -0.5 128.8 40% 62–58 ✓
USC @ Purdue +9.6 150.2 83% 71–76 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Middle Tennessee +0.7 140.0 58% 75–77 ✓
Seattle U @ Abilene Christian -4.1 130.5 30% 69–63 ✓
Nevada @ Colorado State +4.8 137.2 75% 59–67 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge +3.7 149.0 67% 78–72 ✗
SMU @ Clemson +5.2 139.1 68% 54–57 ✓
Kansas @ Arizona +3.2 153.5 70% 77–88 ✓
UTSA @ East Carolina +1.1 149.8 58% 65–70 ✓
Villanova @ UConn +4.4 140.0 73% 56–73 ✓
Oklahoma @ Kentucky +8.1 160.6 76% 84–85 ✓
Tarleton State @ California Baptist +7.0 127.1 78% 51–55 ✓
UNLV @ Utah State +8.9 143.0 80% 58–70 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Riverside +3.9 167.3 55% 96–83 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ VCU +9.3 130.2 83% 59–76 ✓
Oregon @ Michigan State +5.4 137.2 69% 64–74 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Liberty +8.3 142.5 81% 79–81 ✓
Ole Miss @ Auburn +12.2 157.2 84% 57–62 ✓
Wichita State @ Memphis +10.5 146.8 85% 80–83 ✓
Grambling @ Alabama State +3.4 129.6 72% 62–64 ✓
Saint Louis @ Loyola Chicago -0.5 144.6 52% 64–72 ✗
Wisconsin @ UCLA +0.5 139.1 61% 86–70 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State -1.0 140.2 46% 68–70 ✗
Texas @ Tennessee +9.6 135.4 83% 72–83 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Tulane -1.8 144.2 41% 76–83 ✗
Toledo @ Akron +11.5 160.0 86% 90–100 ✓
George Washington @ George Mason +4.2 131.9 65% 65–80 ✓
Morgan State @ Norfolk State +10.1 151.9 85% 55–58 ✓
Iona @ Quinnipiac +2.7 141.9 61% 81–73 ✗
Marquette @ St. John's +4.3 144.0 71% 63–79 ✓
Illinois @ Maryland +3.0 148.9 68% 65–88 ✓
North Carolina @ Duke +10.8 152.8 84% 71–74 ✓
BYU @ Houston +8.0 129.8 76% 54–74 ✓
Missouri @ Florida +10.6 162.7 79% 81–95 ✓
Tulsa @ North Texas +11.9 126.4 86% 59–77 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Dayton +1.8 146.3 58% 73–68 ✗
Kent State @ Miami (OH) -1.3 144.9 46% 64–72 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.