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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
30–5 on winners
spread MAE 6.9
35 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+11.8 | 140.4 | 80% | 65–62 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.0 | 139.4 | 24% | 78–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.8 | 150.3 | 76% | 76–87 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.2 | 145.1 | 79% | 61–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.2 | 140.2 | 43% | 75–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+13.5 | 142.0 | 87% | 56–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.5 | 147.1 | 87% | 83–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.1 | 126.6 | 81% | 50–57 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.0 | 145.3 | 86% | 63–85 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.2 | 145.4 | 34% | 80–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.1 | 126.8 | 89% | 57–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 137.2 | 58% | 63–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.8 | 153.7 | 87% | 67–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 137.5 | 69% | 66–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.3 | 143.6 | 61% | 81–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.2 | 143.0 | 79% | 74–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.1 | 147.8 | 83% | 78–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.7 | 131.2 | 76% | 65–63 | ✗ |
|
|
-10.9 | 156.3 | 17% | 78–64 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.9 | 152.8 | 27% | 75–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.7 | 152.1 | 84% | 68–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 149.4 | 80% | 75–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.2 | 139.8 | 82% | 61–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 150.2 | 73% | 64–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 149.9 | 76% | 74–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 129.2 | 75% | 52–66 | ✓ |
|
|
-16.7 | 152.1 | 13% | 81–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.5 | 139.8 | 74% | 51–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 151.3 | 50% | 81–77 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.6 | 136.5 | 74% | 60–70 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.7 | 143.9 | 88% | 74–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.1 | 131.3 | 84% | 59–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 152.1 | 71% | 56–85 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.1 | 139.1 | 60% | 64–60 | ✗ |
|
|
-1.7 | 140.0 | 42% | 83–75 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.