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Baseline — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
27–10 on winners
spread MAE 11.3
40 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+11.8 | 142.8 | 85% | 59–89 | ✓ |
|
|
— | — | — | 52–87 | — |
|
|
+32.3 | 145.5 | 91% | 71–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+35.7 | 150.4 | 91% | 54–107 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.5 | 140.2 | 22% | 86–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.3 | 137.4 | 84% | 48–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 141.3 | 66% | 68–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+0.9 | 143.3 | 56% | 67–64 | ✗ |
|
|
— | — | — | 73–86 | — |
|
|
+18.0 | 146.3 | 89% | 75–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.2 | 144.2 | 74% | 68–64 | ✗ |
|
|
+24.9 | 134.4 | 91% | 40–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.5 | 145.1 | 47% | 78–46 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.5 | 139.5 | 67% | 58–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.7 | 141.4 | 85% | 46–101 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.7 | 141.7 | 87% | 54–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+24.0 | 148.6 | 89% | 40–86 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.9 | 149.5 | 38% | 72–62 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.0 | 153.6 | 83% | 66–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.7 | 148.1 | 56% | 92–83 | ✗ |
|
|
— | — | — | 83–63 | — |
|
|
+9.4 | 146.6 | 83% | 83–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+29.7 | 159.2 | 91% | 69–96 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.9 | 135.7 | 39% | 77–69 | ✗ |
|
|
+22.1 | 132.3 | 90% | 55–77 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 150.2 | 31% | 79–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.8 | 134.8 | 89% | 59–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+12.1 | 135.3 | 78% | 60–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.8 | 138.5 | 79% | 58–80 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.2 | 145.2 | 63% | 76–73 | ✗ |
|
|
+15.9 | 137.3 | 87% | 68–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 136.0 | 41% | 82–78 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.7 | 143.8 | 39% | 80–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+11.8 | 147.1 | 81% | 60–65 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.2 | 150.8 | 58% | 62–79 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.0 | 138.0 | 38% | 75–80 | ✗ |
|
|
+11.2 | 140.6 | 76% | 61–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.6 | 145.6 | 41% | 84–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+20.2 | 158.3 | 88% | 55–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.9 | 155.7 | 75% | 78–86 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.