Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | KSU -155 UNLV +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +10 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | KSU -9.5 (-19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -5.9 (-15.9) | 140.9 (-14.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -4.9 (-14.9) | 136.8 (-10.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -4.8 (-14.8) | 138.0 (-12.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -5.5 (-15.5) | 141.3 (-15.3) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 12-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-12 | 8-4 |
| Away | 2-7 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.6 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#249) | -9.1 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#241) | -3.07 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.41 (#240) | -4.51 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#192) | 0.301 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 25.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 36.5% |
Game Analysis
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