Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -440 PEPP +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +5 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -12.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.2 (-37.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -10.9 (-5.9) | 152.5 (-27.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -9.2 (-4.2) | 149.3 (-24.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -12.4 (-7.4) | 151.6 (-26.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -11.8 (-6.8) | 147.1 (-22.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-5 | 15-12 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 7-6 |
| Home | 13-2 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-2 | 3-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 75.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.9 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#60) | 2.4 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#45) | -0.16 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#39) | -0.25 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.674 (#34) | 0.424 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | PEPP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 26.2% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 30.1% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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