Betting Lines
| Spread | WKU -42.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WKU +27 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | WKU -42.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.8 (-4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WKU -21.9 (+5.1) | 163.2 (+1.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WKU -22.1 (+4.9) | 159.2 (+5.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WKU -33.1 (-6.1) | 155.7 (+9.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WKU -29.7 (-2.7) | 159.2 (+5.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WKU | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 5-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-4 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#98) | -31.1 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#64) | -1.92 (#252) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.46 (#44) | -3.04 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#84) | 0.357 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WKU | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 33.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.6% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 17.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 4.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 67.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 64.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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