Betting Lines
| Spread | BELL -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | HOW +210 BELL -255 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BELL +21 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -3.7 (-24.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -1.6 (-22.6) | 142.6 (+4.4) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BELL -3.2 (-17.8) | 143.2 (+3.8) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -0.6 (-21.6) | 145.6 (+1.4) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Massey | -12.1 (#272) | -7.7 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.10 (#284) | -1.04 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.80 (#283) | -1.76 (#222) |
| RPI | 0.291 (#265) | 0.375 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 27.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 28.3% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 9.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 63.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.0% | 26.5% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 8.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.