Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
| Money | GT +250 UK -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +17 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | GT -1.3 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.3 (-25.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -1.2 (+18.2) | 149.6 (-8.6) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -0.1 (+17.1) | 154.5 (-13.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -0.2 (+17.2) | 150.8 (-9.8) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-9 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 8-9 |
| Home | 11-3 | 5-6 |
| Away | 4-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#231) | 1.0 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#258) | -1.07 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.70 (#245) | -1.02 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#155) | 0.491 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 19.1% |
| REB / G | 52.5 | 44.7 |
| OREB / G | 20.5 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.60 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 39.8% | 40.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 39.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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