Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Under |
| Money | TEX +105 VILL -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +4 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | TEX -10.0 (-14.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (-16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -8.7 (-12.7) | 143.8 (-11.8) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -5.7 (-9.7) | 138.2 (-6.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -7.5 (-11.5) | 143.2 (-11.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -8.2 (-12.2) | 144.2 (-12.2) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-8 | 18-7 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 11-4 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-0 |
| Away | 6-2 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#14) | 10.5 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#4) | 2.52 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.21 (#4) | 4.14 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.819 (#5) | 0.698 (#24) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.54 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 80.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.9% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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