Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -33.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SLU +53 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | SLU -37.7 (+15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (+10.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SLU -25.8 (+27.2) | 148.5 (+12.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SLU -24.6 (+28.4) | 146.8 (+14.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SLU -38.4 (+14.6) | 150.9 (+10.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SLU -35.7 (+17.3) | 150.4 (+10.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-7 | 4-21 |
| Conference | 6-4 | 3-12 |
| Home | 12-1 | 2-3 |
| Away | 1-4 | 2-17 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 62.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 76.8 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#10) | -16.4 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#63) | -1.84 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#58) | -2.93 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.702 (#23) | 0.365 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | UAPB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 32.9% |
| 3PT% | 43.5% | 21.9% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.0% | 35.9% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 60.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 81.7% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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