Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -1600 NIU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +30 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -16.4 (+13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -11.3 (+18.7) | 141.7 (+6.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -11.5 (+18.5) | 141.0 (+7.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -11.8 (+18.2) | 142.8 (+5.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-12 | 3-16 |
| Conference | 6-10 | 2-12 |
| Home | 7-6 | 2-7 |
| Away | 3-5 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 62.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#229) | -13.9 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#247) | -3.90 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.11 (#256) | -5.69 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#174) | 0.220 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 25.6% | 20.8% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 42.7% |
| TOV% | 24.6% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 82.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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