Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | BGSU -145 BUF +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +8 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | BGSU -9.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -4.4 (+3.6) | 155.0 (+9.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -3.3 (+4.7) | 153.2 (+10.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -6.7 (+1.3) | 159.5 (+4.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -5.9 (+2.1) | 155.7 (+8.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2026 | BUF 89 – 78 BGSU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BGSU 63 – 59 BUF |
| Jan 15, 2025 | BGSU 79 – 61 BUF |
| Feb 7, 2024 | BGSU 87 – 73 BUF |
| Jan 18, 2023 | BUF 100 – 71 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-12 | 16-9 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-5 |
| Home | 4-7 | 8-3 |
| Away | 10-3 | 5-3 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 81.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#117) | 0.1 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.71 (#35) | -0.52 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#48) | -0.62 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#52) | 0.386 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 25.6% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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