They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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28–11 on winners spread MAE 10.0 39 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Indiana @ Michigan State +5.5 141.2 69% 60–81 ✓
Virginia @ Louisville +4.0 160.9 64% 79–70 ✗
Boston College @ Clemson +17.7 132.0 95% 50–74 ✓
Texas A&M @ Tennessee +9.4 163.4 80% 82–87 ✓
UIC @ Northern Iowa +10.1 124.8 82% 69–61 ✗
George Mason @ Loyola Chicago -13.0 143.3 12% 82–74 ✓
Dayton @ Duquesne -3.7 162.9 37% 71–65 ✓
Wisconsin @ Minnesota -1.8 144.9 44% 78–75 ✓
Miami @ Notre Dame -2.5 147.5 41% 81–69 ✓
Massachusetts @ Western Michigan -1.5 159.5 45% 85–82 ✓
Ohio @ Toledo +4.8 159.9 67% 85–101 ✓
Central Michigan @ Miami (OH) +21.4 158.4 97% 61–100 ✓
Ball State @ Akron +25.7 156.4 99% 77–87 ✓
Valparaiso @ Belmont +14.0 150.0 90% 74–78 ✓
UConn @ Seton Hall -4.8 128.9 33% 69–64 ✓
Bradley @ Evansville -7.4 143.7 25% 94–90 ✓
West Virginia @ Houston +11.3 126.8 85% 48–77 ✓
Western Illinois @ Eastern Illinois +10.8 132.5 84% 55–57 ✓
Iowa State @ Kansas -3.8 151.0 36% 63–84 ✗
Oregon @ Nebraska +13.8 145.8 89% 55–90 ✓
Alabama @ Mississippi State -8.3 174.4 23% 97–82 ✓
Florida @ Oklahoma -5.3 155.8 31% 96–79 ✓
Colorado State @ Fresno State -2.7 140.0 40% 69–79 ✗
Baylor @ Oklahoma State +1.7 174.9 56% 94–79 ✗
Grand Canyon @ New Mexico +9.0 139.1 79% 64–87 ✓
Georgetown @ Creighton +12.2 149.7 87% 83–86 ✓
Florida State @ Syracuse +10.2 157.5 82% 86–94 ✓
Air Force @ San José State +11.6 133.3 85% 62–70 ✓
Maryland @ USC +13.9 158.1 90% 71–88 ✓
Saint Mary's @ San Francisco -5.7 141.9 30% 82–68 ✓
Boise State @ UNLV -4.9 152.1 33% 85–89 ✗
VCU @ Rhode Island -4.3 145.8 35% 84–75 ✓
Army @ Holy Cross +5.2 145.2 68% 75–82 ✓
Lehigh @ Boston University +6.2 151.5 71% 93–91 ✗
Chattanooga @ Wofford +8.5 152.1 78% 76–67 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Western Carolina -9.1 152.2 20% 68–72 ✗
Iowa @ Purdue +7.4 143.7 75% 72–79 ✓
High Point @ Winthrop -4.3 170.2 35% 75–92 ✗
Butler @ Xavier -3.0 161.3 39% 75–89 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.