We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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13–7 on winners spread MAE 7.4 20 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Delaware State @ Howard +12.5 126.1 87% 58–84 ✓
Alcorn State @ Alabama State +9.7 159.8 81% 66–81 ✓
Grambling @ Florida A&M -3.1 142.7 39% 84–91 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Prairie View A&M +4.9 171.7 67% 61–73 ✓
Southern @ Bethune-Cookman +4.6 162.6 66% 77–73 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Norfolk State +6.7 126.4 73% 74–70 ✗
South Carolina State @ Coppin State -1.0 150.1 46% 74–72 ✓
Houston Christian @ Lamar +7.6 134.3 76% 56–64 ✓
Navy @ American University -1.1 144.1 46% 51–65 ✗
Incarnate Word @ Stephen F. Austin +11.1 142.2 84% 46–56 ✓
New Orleans @ SE Louisiana +1.6 147.2 56% 79–76 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Northwestern State -3.9 148.4 36% 63–64 ✗
Nicholls @ McNeese +13.9 151.5 90% 68–94 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ East Texas A&M -4.7 138.1 33% 61–50 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Texas Southern +11.9 151.3 86% 51–84 ✓
Jackson State @ Alabama A&M +10.6 141.4 83% 91–100 ✓
Villanova @ Providence -3.5 167.0 38% 88–82 ✓
Marquette @ St. John's +19.5 157.5 96% 68–92 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan +11.0 138.3 84% 59–77 ✓
Kent State @ Buffalo +4.5 171.9 66% 87–81 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.