Betting Lines
| Spread | AAMU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | AAMU -278 JKST +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AAMU +9 | 191 | Won |
| Massey | AAMU -11.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+49.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AAMU -8.8 (+0.2) | 140.0 (+51.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AAMU -7.4 (+1.6) | 140.9 (+50.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AAMU -9.3 (-0.3) | 138.3 (+52.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AAMU -9.1 (-0.1) | 141.1 (+49.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2025 | JKST 103 – 93 AAMU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | JKST 75 – 67 AAMU |
| Jan 10, 2023 | JKST 72 – 64 AAMU |
| Jan 11, 2022 | AAMU 60 – 58 JKST |
| Mar 5, 2021 | JKST 50 – 35 AAMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-5 | 7-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 83.8 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#313) | -18.0 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#277) | -1.65 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#267) | -2.39 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#312) | 0.446 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.4% | 37.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 58.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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