Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | USC -485 MD +370 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +17 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | USC -13.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -9.5 (+7.5) | 149.6 (+9.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -11.7 (+5.3) | 146.1 (+12.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -13.2 (+3.8) | 144.9 (+14.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -12.0 (+5.0) | 148.6 (+10.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2025 | MD 88 – 71 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 4-16 |
| Home | 9-7 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.4 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#59) | 0.2 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#21) | -0.06 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.42 (#34) | -0.09 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#16) | 0.493 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 37.3% | 31.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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