Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | MD -900 USC +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +17 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | MD -13.2 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -11.4 (+5.6) | 152.0 (+7.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -11.7 (+5.3) | 155.0 (+4.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -12.1 (+4.9) | 153.9 (+5.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -12.7 (+4.3) | 152.2 (+6.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | USC 88 – 71 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 17-18 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 17-2 | 12-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 20.0 (#9) | 10.0 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#25) | 1.52 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.74 (#17) | 2.29 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#33) | 0.554 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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