Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | BU -198 LEH +164 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LEH +2 | 184 | Lost |
| Massey | BU -6.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (+32.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -4.8 (-6.8) | 142.9 (+41.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -4.4 (-6.4) | 143.8 (+40.2) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -6.2 (-8.2) | 145.4 (+38.6) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BU -5.1 (-7.1) | 145.1 (+38.9) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | LEH 74 – 60 BU |
| Feb 22, 2026 | LEH 70 – 67 BU |
| Feb 26, 2025 | BU 79 – 68 LEH |
| Jan 15, 2025 | BU 63 – 58 LEH |
| Mar 10, 2024 | LEH 84 – 79 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BU | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 13-4 |
| Away | 6-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -5.6 (#250) | -8.9 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.50 (#295) | -1.95 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.32 (#311) | -3.07 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#317) | 0.411 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BU | LEH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.3% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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