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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
37–9 on winners
spread MAE 6.5
46 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida A&M
@
Jackson State
|
+2.8 | 145.8 | 60% | 76–91 | ✓ |
Coppin State
@
South Carolina State
|
+17.3 | 138.4 | 94% | 63–68 | ✓ |
Sacred Heart
@
Merrimack
|
+3.9 | 140.7 | 64% | 62–66 | ✓ |
USC
@
Rutgers
|
-1.2 | 158.3 | 46% | 97–89 | ✓ |
Florida International
@
Jacksonville State
|
+7.7 | 138.0 | 76% | 56–65 | ✓ |
Utah Tech
@
Utah Valley
|
+11.4 | 145.5 | 85% | 57–74 | ✓ |
Cal State Bakersfield
@
UC Santa Barbara
|
+5.3 | 143.9 | 69% | 66–71 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
Villanova
|
+12.6 | 130.1 | 87% | 55–67 | ✓ |
Oklahoma
@
Georgia
|
+2.5 | 147.2 | 59% | 81–75 | ✗ |
UCF
@
Kansas
|
+10.9 | 156.6 | 84% | 94–98 | ✓ |
Syracuse
@
SMU
|
+8.9 | 160.3 | 79% | 53–73 | ✓ |
Montana
@
Northern Colorado
|
+3.5 | 157.4 | 63% | 91–83 | ✗ |
UT Arlington
@
Grand Canyon
|
+8.4 | 153.8 | 78% | 75–98 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
UC Davis
|
-3.6 | 155.4 | 37% | 86–76 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Akron
|
+11.6 | 158.0 | 85% | 67–96 | ✓ |
Duquesne
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+2.7 | 127.7 | 60% | 59–64 | ✓ |
Georgia Tech
@
Duke
|
+24.2 | 144.0 | 99% | 70–78 | ✓ |
Butler
@
St. John's
|
+9.7 | 150.1 | 81% | 57–78 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Oregon
|
+2.4 | 146.9 | 59% | 59–72 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
BYU
|
-3.1 | 153.6 | 39% | 92–96 | ✗ |
South Florida
@
Wichita State
|
+3.5 | 146.2 | 63% | 68–73 | ✓ |
Arkansas
@
Ole Miss
|
+2.0 | 147.3 | 57% | 80–83 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Toledo
|
-3.7 | 164.9 | 37% | 85–90 | ✗ |
Alabama State
@
Texas Southern
|
-0.2 | 143.0 | 49% | 84–79 | ✓ |
Davidson
@
Saint Louis
|
+2.5 | 143.8 | 59% | 75–83 | ✓ |
Northwestern
@
Wisconsin
|
+5.6 | 144.9 | 69% | 63–70 | ✓ |
Marquette
@
Xavier
|
-3.6 | 149.5 | 37% | 89–87 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Wake Forest
|
-6.5 | 149.9 | 28% | 68–59 | ✓ |
San José State
@
New Mexico
|
+14.5 | 155.9 | 91% | 52–63 | ✓ |
Charlotte
@
Florida Atlantic
|
+9.3 | 154.7 | 80% | 59–64 | ✓ |
Colorado
@
Houston
|
+17.6 | 129.6 | 95% | 68–77 | ✓ |
Texas
@
Texas A&M
|
+4.1 | 141.6 | 64% | 94–89 | ✗ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Miami (OH)
|
+7.5 | 153.7 | 75% | 75–81 | ✓ |
Fordham
@
George Washington
|
+7.6 | 149.6 | 75% | 81–88 | ✓ |
Boise State
@
San Diego State
|
-0.4 | 133.7 | 49% | 62–52 | ✓ |
Morgan State
@
Howard
|
+3.5 | 167.8 | 63% | 91–90 | ✗ |
Manhattan
@
Iona
|
-2.0 | 150.7 | 43% | 65–77 | ✗ |
Iowa
@
Illinois
|
+9.6 | 170.4 | 81% | 94–106 | ✓ |
Western Michigan
@
Kent State
|
+10.1 | 138.8 | 82% | 66–73 | ✓ |
New Mexico State
@
Kennesaw State
|
-0.8 | 137.0 | 47% | 77–80 | ✗ |
Baylor
@
Texas Tech
|
+4.9 | 149.1 | 67% | 74–76 | ✓ |
Stanford
@
Louisville
|
+9.4 | 145.0 | 80% | 73–75 | ✓ |
Tulsa
@
Temple
|
+6.3 | 152.5 | 72% | 75–71 | ✗ |
DePaul
@
Creighton
|
+10.4 | 147.6 | 83% | 81–85 | ✓ |
La Salle
@
Saint Joseph's
|
+10.8 | 146.6 | 84% | 70–75 | ✓ |
Mississippi State
@
Missouri
|
+2.2 | 160.6 | 58% | 73–85 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.