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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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38–9 on winners spread MAE 9.4 47 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Akron @ Jackson State	-8.8	157.7	21%	68–50	✓
UNC Greensboro @ Elon	+4.9	127.3	67%	69–73	✓
Kansas State @ Wichita State	+1.4	154.6	55%	65–84	✓
Oregon @ Stanford	-7.3	151.9	25%	76–61	✓
Bucknell @ Gonzaga	+35.4	157.4	100%	65–86	✓
Yale @ UTEP	-0.6	147.0	48%	74–75	✗
Cal Poly @ Omaha	-2.3	164.4	42%	82–86	✗
UC San Diego @ San Diego	-15.7	137.8	8%	77–71	✓
Utah Valley @ Weber State	-0.7	143.2	48%	64–62	✓
Portland State @ Cal State Bakersfield	+7.8	154.6	76%	59–58	✗
San Diego State @ California	-6.8	150.2	27%	71–50	✓
Kennesaw State @ San José State	+1.9	153.7	57%	65–89	✓
Illinois State @ Cornell	+7.7	159.6	76%	80–77	✗
Morgan State @ Iowa State	+41.8	163.4	100%	72–99	✓
Kent State @ Alabama	+17.7	147.9	95%	54–81	✓
Central Arkansas @ Oklahoma	+27.8	149.8	99%	66–89	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Michigan	+15.9	163.1	93%	58–89	✓
New Hampshire @ Stonehill	+12.3	131.3	87%	83–90	✓
Bryant @ Towson	-1.1	148.2	46%	65–70	✗
Binghamton @ Army	+8.0	154.2	77%	78–68	✗
Sacred Heart @ Miami (OH)	+6.2	148.9	71%	76–94	✓
Illinois @ Missouri	-5.8	157.6	30%	80–77	✓
Iona @ Colgate	+5.8	135.0	70%	79–73	✗
UC Santa Barbara @ Missouri State	-0.5	144.7	48%	56–68	✗
Pennsylvania @ George Mason	+22.2	135.2	98%	53–85	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Wisconsin	+26.0	150.8	99%	53–76	✓
Radford @ South Carolina	+11.0	139.5	84%	48–74	✓
Mercyhurst @ West Virginia	+29.9	136.2	100%	46–67	✓
Montana State @ TCU	+6.8	137.1	73%	48–82	✓
American University @ Virginia	+12.8	118.2	88%	58–63	✓
William & Mary @ VCU	+17.7	155.5	95%	70–90	✓
Brown @ Kansas	+19.5	145.4	96%	53–87	✓
Prairie View A&M @ Rice	+13.8	164.0	90%	46–64	✓
Alcorn State @ UAB	+17.6	156.2	95%	74–91	✓
McNeese @ Louisiana	-13.3	141.0	11%	64–56	✓
Oral Roberts @ Oklahoma State	+17.4	153.8	94%	74–86	✓
Oregon State @ Charleston	-13.4	144.2	11%	74–65	✓
Houston Christian @ North Texas	+20.4	125.8	97%	46–62	✓
New Orleans @ LSU	+28.2	152.5	99%	70–86	✓
Charleston Southern @ Georgia	+26.9	144.4	99%	65–81	✓
Grambling @ Cincinnati	+23.8	131.2	98%	49–84	✓
Southern @ USC	+10.5	142.2	83%	51–82	✓
Saint Louis @ Grand Canyon	+9.4	158.6	80%	72–73	✓
Rider @ NC State	+17.0	128.7	94%	63–89	✓
Wyoming @ Cal State Fullerton	-3.4	129.2	38%	73–69	✓
Loyola Chicago @ Oakland	-6.8	130.9	27%	71–72	✗
Le Moyne @ Notre Dame	+18.3	148.0	95%	62–91	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.