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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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24–10 on winners spread MAE 9.7 34 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Lehigh @ Boston University +8.9 140.5 79% 58–69 ✓
Oregon State @ Utah +4.6 133.5 66% 75–70 ✗
Florida A&M @ North Carolina Central +0.2 126.5 51% 65–58 ✗
Providence @ St. John's +2.1 156.6 58% 67–81 ✓
NC State @ Notre Dame +1.8 147.7 57% 80–69 ✗
Minnesota @ Penn State +4.0 151.7 64% 65–84 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Sam Houston +16.5 142.1 93% 61–84 ✓
New Mexico @ Colorado State +23.2 129.9 98% 73–87 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Belmont +18.9 147.7 96% 61–78 ✓
Northwestern State @ LSU New Orleans +5.2 157.1 68% 83–92 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Houston Christian +2.2 143.3 58% 67–72 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Central Arkansas +3.7 150.3 63% 71–88 ✓
Creighton @ Villanova +3.2 149.9 61% 60–72 ✓
Mississippi State @ Texas A&M -4.5 123.6 34% 63–57 ✓
Boston College @ Florida State +16.9 160.2 94% 64–93 ✓
San Diego State @ UNLV -12.2 133.5 13% 71–62 ✓
UCLA @ Oregon +2.6 139.1 59% 74–82 ✓
Maryland @ Northwestern -3.1 135.6 39% 55–60 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Stephen F. Austin -3.4 144.6 38% 63–61 ✓
Idaho State @ Eastern Washington +14.3 142.1 90% 68–63 ✗
Stanford @ USC +8.9 139.9 79% 42–79 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Morehead State +8.1 131.7 77% 54–61 ✓
Duquesne @ Richmond +6.6 140.8 72% 67–62 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ Massachusetts +6.3 163.4 72% 66–100 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Liberty +18.5 129.3 95% 59–69 ✓
North Alabama @ North Florida +0.7 145.9 53% 68–60 ✗
Rhode Island @ Dayton +0.7 139.7 53% 72–84 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Quinnipiac -1.6 124.6 44% 60–65 ✗
Monmouth @ Rider -6.1 163.4 29% 77–74 ✓
George Washington @ George Mason +7.8 144.4 76% 59–73 ✓
Campbell @ Radford +2.4 128.8 58% 78–60 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Florida Atlantic +8.6 137.5 78% 50–80 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Bradley +4.5 130.5 66% 73–63 ✗
Fairfield @ Manhattan +5.7 125.6 70% 59–69 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.