← All models
Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
19–10 on winners
spread MAE 7.3
29 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Illinois
@
Michigan
|
+5.5 | 150.2 | 69% | 76–53 | ✗ |
Auburn
@
Alabama
|
+11.7 | 159.0 | 86% | 58–70 | ✓ |
Texas
@
Iowa State
|
-12.3 | 144.8 | 13% | 81–67 | ✓ |
TCU
@
Texas Tech
|
+14.0 | 134.6 | 90% | 49–69 | ✓ |
Merrimack
@
Wagner
|
+6.1 | 125.7 | 71% | 67–74 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
Boise State
|
+17.1 | 136.2 | 94% | 67–64 | ✗ |
Purdue Fort Wayne
@
Cleveland State
|
+10.0 | 141.5 | 82% | 104–108 | ✓ |
Detroit Mercy
@
Northern Kentucky
|
-0.3 | 146.5 | 49% | 69–70 | ✗ |
Milwaukee
@
Wright State
|
+17.9 | 151.1 | 95% | 94–92 | ✗ |
Tulsa
@
UCF
|
+3.3 | 128.7 | 62% | 69–73 | ✓ |
Xavier
@
Georgetown
|
-2.5 | 144.9 | 41% | 66–72 | ✗ |
Eastern Michigan
@
Ball State
|
+11.4 | 145.6 | 85% | 65–100 | ✓ |
Western Michigan
@
Northern Illinois
|
-3.6 | 127.2 | 37% | 73–63 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Bowling Green
|
+6.3 | 148.6 | 72% | 84–79 | ✗ |
Youngstown State
@
Oakland
|
+2.6 | 158.2 | 59% | 83–87 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Michigan State
|
-1.1 | 139.5 | 46% | 58–64 | ✗ |
Duke
@
Georgia Tech
|
+3.1 | 152.5 | 61% | 77–81 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
LSU
|
+11.0 | 161.8 | 84% | 68–83 | ✓ |
Wisconsin
@
Purdue
|
+1.8 | 127.6 | 57% | 69–73 | ✓ |
Marquette
@
DePaul
|
-3.1 | 135.1 | 39% | 77–71 | ✓ |
Memphis
@
South Florida
|
-8.7 | 134.5 | 22% | 73–52 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
Ole Miss
|
+2.5 | 127.1 | 59% | 62–70 | ✓ |
Saint Joseph's
@
La Salle
|
+0.1 | 158.1 | 50% | 72–66 | ✗ |
Fordham
@
George Washington
|
+7.0 | 126.9 | 74% | 49–53 | ✓ |
|
Merrimack
@
Wagner
|
+6.1 | 125.7 | 71% | 59–64 | ✓ |
Clemson
@
Syracuse
|
+1.5 | 133.3 | 55% | 54–64 | ✓ |
Wichita State
@
Tulane
|
-4.6 | 136.0 | 34% | 78–70 | ✓ |
UConn
@
Seton Hall
|
+0.4 | 136.5 | 51% | 69–58 | ✗ |
Missouri
@
Florida
|
+5.9 | 144.6 | 70% | 72–70 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.