Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | MICH -333 ILL +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +23 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | MICH -4.2 (-27.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -7.3 (-30.3) | 150.3 (-21.3) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -4.5 (-27.5) | 146.2 (-17.2) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -6.8 (-29.8) | 148.4 (-19.4) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -7.0 (-30.0) | 148.6 (-19.6) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MICH 84 – 70 ILL |
| Mar 2, 2025 | ILL 93 – 73 MICH |
| Feb 14, 2024 | ILL 97 – 68 MICH |
| Jan 19, 2024 | ILL 88 – 73 MICH |
| Mar 3, 2023 | ILL 91 – 87 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-5 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 16-4 |
| Home | 13-1 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-2 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.1 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 21.1 (#3) | 19.5 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.42 (#3) | 2.88 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.50 (#3) | 4.03 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.656 (#2) | 0.601 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 50.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 77.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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