Betting Lines
| Spread | GT -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | GT -110 DUKE +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +4 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | GT -3.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GT -4.3 (-0.3) | 148.6 (+9.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GT -2.1 (+1.9) | 145.3 (+12.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GT -4.1 (-0.1) | 149.4 (+8.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GT -4.4 (-0.4) | 150.3 (+7.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | DUKE 85 – 79 GT |
| Mar 13, 2025 | DUKE 78 – 70 GT |
| Dec 21, 2024 | DUKE 82 – 56 GT |
| Jan 13, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 79 GT |
| Dec 2, 2023 | GT 72 – 68 DUKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-9 | 13-11 |
| Conference | 11-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-5 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#44) | 9.9 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.77 (#55) | 1.28 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#47) | 1.97 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#88) | 0.538 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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