Betting Lines
| Spread | MEM -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | USF +450 MEM -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +21 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | MEM -8.5 (-12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -6.8 (-14.2) | 137.5 (-12.5) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -6.4 (-14.6) | 135.6 (-10.6) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -8.1 (-12.9) | 136.5 (-11.5) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -8.0 (-13.0) | 137.1 (-12.1) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | USF 96 – 89 MEM |
| Feb 20, 2026 | USF 87 – 66 MEM |
| Mar 8, 2025 | MEM 84 – 68 USF |
| Feb 14, 2025 | MEM 80 – 65 USF |
| Jan 19, 2024 | USF 74 – 73 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-13 | 20-8 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 11-4 |
| Home | 4-6 | 10-1 |
| Away | 3-4 | 4-3 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 62.7 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#183) | 10.0 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#136) | 1.77 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#143) | 2.45 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#170) | 0.559 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.4% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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