Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -120 WIS +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +4 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -2.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.3 (+14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -4.3 (-0.3) | 130.5 (+11.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -2.6 (+1.4) | 129.2 (+12.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -3.9 (+0.1) | 131.1 (+10.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -4.0 (-0.0) | 132.1 (+9.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | WIS 97 – 93 PUR |
| Jan 4, 2026 | PUR 89 – 73 WIS |
| Feb 15, 2025 | WIS 94 – 84 PUR |
| Mar 16, 2024 | WIS 76 – 75 PUR |
| Mar 10, 2024 | PUR 78 – 70 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-10 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 11-1 | 11-5 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 64.6 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#23) | 14.4 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#19) | 2.28 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.46 (#13) | 3.28 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#31) | 0.552 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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