Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | ALA -500 AUB +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +12 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -11.1 (+0.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (-31.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -11.8 (+0.2) | 161.9 (-33.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -9.1 (+2.9) | 157.5 (-29.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -11.4 (+0.6) | 158.9 (-30.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -11.9 (+0.1) | 161.8 (-33.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ALA 96 – 84 AUB |
| Feb 7, 2026 | ALA 96 – 92 AUB |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALA 93 – 91 AUB |
| Feb 15, 2025 | AUB 94 – 85 ALA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | AUB 99 – 81 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-7 | 13-14 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.7 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#7) | 8.3 (#68) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#15) | 1.20 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#14) | 1.76 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#9) | 0.540 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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