Betting Lines
| Spread | WAG -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | WAG -200 MRMK +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +7 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | WAG -6.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WAG -4.9 (+2.1) | 131.7 (+9.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WAG -5.4 (+1.6) | 131.3 (+9.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WAG -5.0 (+2.0) | 133.3 (+7.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WAG -4.7 (+2.3) | 132.0 (+9.0) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2024 | WAG 54 – 47 MRMK |
| Jan 26, 2024 | MRMK 60 – 44 WAG |
| Jan 20, 2024 | WAG 71 – 65 MRMK |
| Jan 17, 2023 | WAG 62 – 57 MRMK |
| Dec 31, 2022 | MRMK 58 – 48 WAG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAG | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-7 | 9-9 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#167) | -4.0 (#233) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#127) | -0.11 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#130) | -0.29 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#108) | 0.485 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAG | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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