Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -150 IU +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +6 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | IU -1.2 (+7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -1.4 (+4.6) | 141.4 (-19.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -0.5 (+5.5) | 139.2 (-17.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -1.0 (+5.0) | 142.3 (-20.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -1.8 (+4.2) | 141.6 (-19.6) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | MSU 77 – 64 IU |
| Jan 14, 2026 | MSU 81 – 60 IU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | IU 71 – 67 MSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | IU 65 – 64 MSU |
| Feb 22, 2023 | MSU 80 – 65 IU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-13 | 12-15 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-12 |
| Home | 12-3 | 6-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#78) | 11.1 (#38) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#51) | 1.79 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#40) | 2.61 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#125) | 0.535 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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